The Worst Idea in the History of Bad Ideas
Solar geoengineering is the mini-submarine of climate technology
Updates
We had an uh-mazing night last night talking about sustainable batteries at Manny’s! The panel discussion was very energetic and engaging, and I met a ton of really interesting people, and connected a lot of job seekers with companies that are hiring. Thanks to everyone who came out!
If you missed it, don’t worry! We’ll be posting the video to our YouTube channel soon. And, March 16, we will be hosting another panel on fugitive methane emissions, an exciting topic in light of the new regulations in the Inflation Reduction Act. Hope to see you there!
We Get Letters
I wanted to thank everybody for the outpouring of support from last week’s post about the death of our friend and community member Jen Angel. It meant a lot to me.
Additionally, my mother wrote in to say that she was very moved by my writing, and was glad that I am using “the F-word” less often. Thanks mom! And sorry in advance about this week’s post.
Solar Geoengineering
Someone recently asked me what I think about solar geoengineering. Given that the purpose of this Substack is for me to offer based opinions about climate technology, I thought it would be worth addressing the question in the following way:
So, let’s back up a bit. Recently, a startup called Make Sunsets decided that it would be cool to start releasing sulfur particles into the atmosphere. These particles, in sufficient volume, could reflect enough sunlight to reverse climate change, or so the theory goes.
This is what the Union of Concerned Scientists has to say:
The Union of Concerned Scientists opposes the deployment of solar geoengineering because it poses unacceptably high environmental, social, and geopolitical risks. Instead, UCS supports continued modeling research, observational studies, and strong, inclusive public participation in decision-making over whether and how further research should include possible small-scale outdoor experiments.
This is of course a sober, reasoned perspective, and as we well know, Silicon Valley does not really deal in sober, reasoned, careful work. Silicon Valley likes to “move fast and break things”, and this may be the most Silicon Valley thing ever, because what they are going to break is the whole fucking planet.
One thing you might notice about the Make Sunsets website is that nobody has attached their name to it. This helps give you an idea what an asinine and dangerous idea this is, because normally startup founders love to plaster their names all over everything. In this case, the genius behind this idea is Luke Iseman, whose credentials appear to be a BS in Econ, a year at YCombinator, and a beard. The BS in Econ is of course useless, but a year at YCombinator and a beard are all you need to raise money from venture capital firms these days, apparently.
There are two fundamental problems with this idea: the first is that we don’t understand the earth’s atmosphere and climate nearly well enough to be certain this won’t cause other, potentially more serious problems. Yes, we know climate change is real, but a large part of that certainty is due to the fact that we can observe it.
But the ways you can bork a highly complex system (like the atmosphere) are far, far more numerous than the ways you can fix it. Put simply, the Second Law of Thermodynamics says: If there are lots of ways for something to be broken, but only a small number of ways for it to be non-broken, then things will tend to go from non-broken to broken, because there are so many more ways to be non-broken. A short, non-exhaustive list of possible things that could go wrong with this idea, include:
Over-cooling of the planet
Particles interfering with the ozone layer
Particles reacting with other pollutants to create even worse greenhouse trapping gasses
Particles being absorbed into clouds and creating acid rain
Particles killing off helpful bacteria, or other parts of the food chain
But, fundamentally, the flaw in the idea of solar geoengineering isn’t really scientific. Sure we could and should study the idea. But, it would be an admission of failure to ever truly consider it, and we are far, far from the point where the risks would be worth it.
The real problem with Making Sunsets is that Silicon Valley is in love with the idea of rogue heroes who break the norms and fix the world’s problems. This idea is great for trashy sci fi, but it is actually terrible for solving global crises. I support the further study of solar geoengineering, and public debate, and even possibly government action if it comes to it. But two dudes in Oakland floating balloons full of sulfur into the atmosphere is like the climate equivalent of Elon Musk’s mini-submarine. It’s self-absorbed, technically illiterate, and just plain stupid. We should shun people who take it upon themselves to decide for the rest of the world what’s good for the planet, and we should shun the people who gave them money to do it. The climate crisis can and should be a pivotal moment for transnational human cooperation. Treating it as an opportunity for self-aggrandizement and grift is reprehensible.